Skype is breaking all kinds of growth records. Breathlessly, I predict that on Monday, March 16th it will break another, a new record for the number of concurrent users online.... 17 Million!!, which it will have achieved just 41 days after 16 million, which itself is just 21 days after reaching 15 Million. Following the pattern of prior years, the weekday peaks will soon start to grow smaller (to around 16.5 Million) by mid August, and then the climb will resume.
In terms of "Real Users", a better measure of actual usage, Skype is growing at a rate of nearly a million users per month. There could easily be 48 million real Skype users by the end of 2009, a one year increase of 12 million (faster than 2008).
Gone are the days when Skype skeptics could plausibly say that growth was slowing down. Now, with Skype finding its way onto more devices and into more channels than ever before, growth in usage seems destined for further acceleration. To the lingering doubters: don't underestimate Skype's lead. With every passing day they take away opportunities for rivals to catch up.
Having said that, here are the cautionary notes. By a careful reading of the graph, it can be seen that recent growth is especially strong in the Americas (North and South). By contrast, Skype's weakest markets are currently found in Europe and Africa.
Skype has gained a solid lead over its rivals in both voice and video quality. With the growth problem solved, Skype's unsolved problems are far less difficult. There are two such problems, and it remains to be seen just how Skype will address them:
- Revenue per "real user" has been shrinking.
- Turnover ("real users" as a percentage of nominal users) is getting worse http://glimfeather.com/Borderless/Blogs/30023870.html
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PS. If Skype doesn't break 17 Million next Monday, I still might be the most accurate forecaster because some thought it would hit 17 million this week.