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Measuring Skype's Customer Base and Ecosystem
Patterns of Usage and Growth
What is a "Real User"?
It is not a measurement of Skype's registered users or paying customers. Neither is it a measure of "active" users, but we believe it approximates "active users" if there were a definition of such. "Real user" is a calibrated measurement of peak daily usage at each hour around the world. Calibration is based on multiple sources including independent survey results of "active users" from 2003-2005. Raw data has been gathered and plotted continuously from 2004 to the present.
The basic formula for "Real Users" is sum of the historical peaks at three points in the typical weekday; 2 GMT (noon in the Far East), 10 GMT (noon in Central Europe), and 18 GMT (noon in the mid-western United States). There is a certain oversimplification and arbitrariness to this formula to be sure, but there is also a certain logic, and the result has proven to be in line with other estimates. Most importantly, this calibration formula has been applied consistently since Skype's beginning, so comparisons are relevant.
Some people have said the formula should be updated as a result of Skype's changing ecosystem (Skype Lite, mobile devices, video, unlimited broadband contracts, etc.), but no theory has been advanced saying precisely how the formula could be improved, so it's reasonable to expect it not to change in the future. Also, the data that is available supports the use of this formula. If another formula were thought to be more accurate, it is unlikely that the existing historical data would be sufficient to support it.
The above three daily data points are NOT the only data collected. Additionally, the concurrent users online are recorded and graphed at the mid-week peak, at the mid-week low, at the weekend peak, and at the weekend low. In this way it is hoped to understand the entire shape of the "Skype cloud."
Graphs and Charts
"Skype Online Now" is a graph of concurrent Skype users. It is updated every 15 minutes. It illustrates the fluctuation of usage throughout the day as users around the world log in and log off. The "Real Users" statistic, which is drawn from this raw data shows the long-term growth of Skype usage and how it breaks down between geographically; The Americas, Europe/Africa, Asia/Pacific. Other graphs are hopefully self-explanatory.
Demographics - what the statistics mean
We make great efforts to study patterns of Skype usage. Interesting measurement studies of Skype usage have been made in which we compare usage year-to-year, season-to-season, weekday-to-weekend, and hour-to-hour. By measuring the size of usage gaps and when they occur, we are able to estimate the size of various demographic groups among "real users" such as regions of the world and whether they appear to be business users, non-business users, or persistent users (online 24/7). We are also able to measure seasonality and long-term trends. Finally, by comparing our data to other sources of data that are broken out by country, we believe that we can make reasonable estimates of "real users" in specific countries, and even to make some assumptions about how they are using Skype. Analysis is published periodically on our blog, and commissioned studies can be made upon request.
Gaps in the numbers - Do they matter?
Basically, no. We have been gathering Skype statistics since 2003. For the most part, the weekly and seasonal patterns that existed then have continued through 2009. The daily peaks and troughs occur at about the same time, the effects of holidays are the same, and the relative activity of Skype users in the Americas, Europe/Africa, and Asia/Pacific has changed only slightly. In gathering stats, we therefore sometimes take a few days off and the pattern is still there when they resume.
Skype statistics and "real user" are copyright @2009-2010 H. Barton and Aaytch LLC